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Show Me the Data

Turning lemons into lemonade seems to be the theme of this month’s employment report from the state’s Department of Commerce. 

While the state unemployment rate remains stuck at 9.6 percent, we did manage to do better this February creating jobs, gaining 5,300 jobs over the same month last year.   According to the state’s official jobs spokesperson, “. . . we’re at least going in the right direction.”

The same “turning the corner” on the jobs front optimism was heard at the end of last year.   But, it now appears that our economic estimates got ahead of what was actually happening in the market.  The feds revised Arizona’s job estimates for the year 2010, turning our meagerly positive job growth into another official down year for employment in the Grand Canyon State.  After the beans were counted and recounted, turns out we were not among the best in adding jobs last year.  In fact, we’re in the bottom 10 of all states in this category.

But, that’s the past.

And, looking at the road ahead, our economic development community keeps telling us “the future’s so bright, you gotta wear shades.” And, with several large projects in the pipeline, I think we are indeed in for better times on the jobs front.

For example, just last week another large solar manufacturing plant was announced.  And, this one was a big win for Arizona.  With the City of Mesa doing the heavy lifting, Tempe-based First Solar Inc, the world’s largest manufacturer of thin-film solar modules, announced plans to build a manufacturing facility on the former site of General Motors Desert Proving Ground in southeast Mesa.  

First Solar’s impressive world headquarters building overlooks Tempe Town Lake.  You might expect thousands of employees to be housed at corporate for a large, growing, global corporation like First Solar, but the Tempe headquarters is home to only a couple hundred employees.  The Mesa facility will be only the second of the company’s manufacturing plants actually situated in the United States (the other is in Ohio).   First Solar’s other facilities are located in Germany, France, Malaysia, and Vietnam.   

Several factors are at play in First Solar’s expansion to Mesa.  First, Germany is facing a glut of solar power and has announced cuts to its subsidies that support solar.   Second, most states and regions in the U.S. are thirsting for clean energy sources as a way to cut back on fossil fuels.  Third, Arizona’s proximity to California’s renewables-hungry and huge power market makes Mesa a logical choice for the company’s expansion.  Fourth, the state with the greatest potential for producing solar power is . . . Arizona.  Oh, and did I mention that First Solar’s headquarters is in Tempe, Arizona – a pretty good reason for locating your second U.S. manufacturing facility close by. 

The project will create jobs and help drive growth in state and local economies.  How many new jobs will be created by the Mesa project depends on how aggressive the company’s expansion plans are.  Building the $300 million plant will require about 400 to 500 temporary construction workers.  Once the plant is operational sometime next year it’s expected to employ about 600 permanent workers.  Additional land options at the site could support additional assembly lines requiring up to 4,800 workers – at least that’s what the economic developers are saying.

That brings me to another point.  I’ve written before (here, here, and here) about Arizona’s potential for solar development.  Governor Brewer and other policymakers and government officials have proclaimed Arizona’s destiny as the “solar capitol of the world.”  We’ve seen the announcements by Suntech, Gestamp Solar Steel, and others to bring jobs and business to Arizona.  The rooftop solar business seems to be booming thanks in large part to rebates and tax incentives.  And, now First Solar’s announced plant. 

But, how will we know what difference this important and growing industry makes to our economy and its impact on employment?  Do we have reliable data about the industry that could be useful in attracting support businesses to the solar cluster in Arizona?  What types of jobs and how many are being created and should we support investments in specialized training and education programs so Arizonans are qualified for the jobs?  Are the incentives provided the industry meeting our expectations and anticipated returns? 

If you talk to representatives in the solar industry, you get guesses and anecdotal stories, but no real facts or data.  Economic developers have an incentive to . . . well. . . ah . . . exaggerate the numbers.  And, data published by the state and federal governments don’t break-out the solar supply chain in any detail to provide an accurate picture of the industry’s economic role within the overall state economy. 

After all, even though Arizona’s lemons are “kissed by the sun,” concocting the best lemonade requires measuring ingredients and taste-testing the result. 

Written on Friday, 25 March 2011 13:13 by Gary Yaquinto

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